The chances are low, since most EV batteries will outlast the vehicles they were installed in. Of EVs on the road since 2016, less than 1% have needed battery replacements, and battery technology continues to improve. In fact, even after 15 or 20 years, EVs often have 60%-70% of their charge capacity left. Plus EVs have battery warranties of at least 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. An EV battery that loses 30% or more of its range in this window would be replaced under warranty.
Recurrent conducted a study of high-mileage EVs and of 100 EVs with over 177,000 miles, only six have had battery replacements. Of the 15 EVs with the highest mileage in the study (all with over 250,000 miles), not one has needed a battery replacement.
